The 2026 FIFA World Cup is almost here, and with 48 teams and 104 matches, it’s shaping up to be the biggest tournament ever. More games mean more goals, and that makes the Golden Boot 2026 race awarded to the tournament’s top scorer one of the most exciting storylines.
Let’s break down the top five players most likely to lead the scoring charts.
1. Kylian Mbappé (France)
Kylian Mbappé is the clear favorite. He won the 2022 Golden Boot with eight goals, including a hat trick in the final. At 27, he’s in his prime, combining speed, power, and clinical finishing.
France are one of the strongest teams, expected to reach the final, giving Mbappé plenty of chances to score. He also takes penalties and usually plays almost every minute in important matches.
Why he’s a favorite:
- Already proven at the World Cup
- Likely to play 6–7 matches
- Can score from almost anywhere
Prediction: 8–10 goals
2. Erling Haaland (Norway)
Erling Haaland is one of the most lethal forwards in the world. He’s strong, fast, and knows exactly how to finish chances. 2026 will be his first World Cup, and he’ll be eager to show the world what he can do.
Even if Norway don’t make it far, Haaland could still score enough goals to challenge for the Golden Boot. A few big games, like a brace or hat trick, might put him at the top.
Why he’s a contender:
- Incredible goal-scoring record for club and country
- Can dominate weaker teams in the group stage
- Every chance is likely to become a goal
Prediction: 6–8 goals
3. Harry Kane (England)
Harry Kane is a reliable goal scorer with a history of performing at World Cups. He combines smart positioning and accurate finishing with England’s strong team, giving him plenty of scoring chances.
England are expected to advance deep into the tournament, which means Kane will have multiple matches to score. He often benefits from well-timed crosses, set pieces, and chances created by teammates like Bukayo Saka and Jude Bellingham.
Why he’s a contender:
- Experienced and consistent scorer
- England expected to reach semi-finals
- Plays with talented teammates creating opportunities
Prediction: 7–9 goals
4. Julián Álvarez (Argentina)
Julián Álvarez is Argentina’s rising star. He is fast, intelligent in front of goal, and has already shown he can score in big tournaments, netting four goals in 2022.
Playing alongside Lionel Messi, he benefits from the attention defenses give to Messi, creating space for himself. If Argentina reach the final, Álvarez could easily rack up several goals.
Why he’s a contender:
- Already proven in the World Cup
- Intelligent movement and clinical finishing
- Supports Messi and benefits from Argentina’s strong team
Prediction: 6–8 goals
5. Lionel Messi (Argentina)
At 38, Lionel Messi may be playing his last World Cup. While he may not run as much as before, he remains one of the most creative and accurate finishers in the world.
Messi will likely play key minutes and take penalties, giving him chances to score. Argentina’s strong squad will help him reach the later stages, where he can still make a major impact.
Why he’s a contender:
- Smart positioning and incredible finishing
- Likely to take penalties
- Motivation to go out with a strong farewell
Prediction: 5–7 goals
Who Will Win the 2026 Golden Boot?
Kylian Mbappé is the favorite, thanks to his skill, team, and past World Cup success. Erling Haaland could surprise with a few explosive games, and Harry Kane offers consistency and experience. Julián Álvarez may also shine if Argentina reach the final, while Messi could add a farewell flourish.
With more matches than ever, 8–10 goals could be enough to win the Golden Boot. The 2026 World Cup promises to be thrilling, and the race for top scorer will keep fans on the edge of their seats until the very last game.
