The PL Golden Boot 2026/27 race already has a familiar name at the front of the queue, but the battle behind Erling Haaland looks far more open than it did at several points during the previous campaign. Manchester City’s striker finished the 2025/26 Premier League season with 27 goals, securing another Golden Boot, while Brentford’s Igor Thiago emerged as the closest challenger with 22.
The new campaign, however, brings several important changes that could reshape the scoring charts. Mohamed Salah is no longer in the Premier League, Liverpool have a different attacking balance, several clubs have changed managers and a number of leading forwards enter the season after featuring at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Those factors make the PL Golden Boot 2026/27 difficult to predict with complete confidence, particularly because the award is often decided by availability, penalties, tactical responsibility and how consistently a striker receives chances over 38 league matches.
Haaland remains the obvious benchmark after another prolific season, but Alexander Isak, Igor Thiago, Ollie Watkins, João Pedro, Viktor Gyökeres and Benjamin Šeško all have credible routes to the award. Here are the seven strikers who could realistically challenge for the PL Golden Boot 2026/27.
1. Erling Haaland – Manchester City
Haaland has to start at the top because there is very little evidence to suggest that his scoring level is declining. The Norwegian finished 2025/26 with 27 Premier League goals from 35 appearances, comfortably winning the Golden Boot ahead of Thiago. He has now established himself as the dominant goalscorer of the Premier League era, with three Golden Boots already secured before the beginning of the 2026/27 campaign.
His biggest advantage remains the relationship between his individual qualities and Manchester City’s ability to create chances. Haaland does not need a huge number of touches to influence a match because his movement inside the penalty area consistently places him in high-value scoring positions.
The change of manager at City creates one of the few genuine questions surrounding his prospects. Pep Guardiola has departed and Enzo Maresca has taken charge, meaning Haaland will operate within a slightly different tactical structure. That does not automatically mean fewer goals, but it introduces an element of uncertainty that did not exist during Guardiola’s long tenure.
The 2026 World Cup only strengthened Haaland’s case. Norway reached the quarter-finals and Haaland scored seven goals in four World Cup appearances. His brace against Brazil in the last 16 took his tournament total to seven and helped Norway reach the final eight for the first time. FIFA also recorded that he had scored 27 goals across his previous 14 competitive internationals for Norway. There is therefore little reason to move him from first place.
Prediction: 28 Premier League goals
2. Alexander Isak – Liverpool
If there is one player capable of seriously challenging Haaland, Alexander Isak is arguably the most convincing candidate. His first season at Liverpool was extremely difficult, with injuries and limited availability preventing him from showing the level that made the club invest heavily in him. Liverpool therefore enter 2026/27 hoping to see the Newcastle version of Isak rather than the injury-hit forward who struggled to establish rhythm during his debut campaign.
That distinction is important when assessing the PL Golden Boot 2026/27 race. Before moving to Liverpool, Isak had already demonstrated that he could produce elite Premier League numbers. His combination of pace, close control, movement between defenders and finishing ability makes him unusually difficult to defend because he can threaten both in behind and in congested penalty-area situations. Liverpool also have an obvious reason to put greater attacking responsibility on him.
Salah has departed the Premier League, while Hugo Ekitiké is expected to miss a significant portion of the season after suffering an Achilles injury. That leaves Isak as one of the most important attacking figures in Liverpool’s squad. Recent reports have also highlighted the pressure on Isak to deliver after his difficult first campaign.
His World Cup provided another reason for optimism. Sweden selected Isak for the tournament after he recovered from injury, with FIFA describing him and Gyökeres as the spearheads of Graham Potter’s attack. The biggest question is not his finishing ability. It is whether Liverpool can keep him fit for the majority of the campaign. If they can, Isak has the profile required to push Haaland much closer than most challengers.
Prediction: 24 Premier League goals
3. Igor Thiago – Brentford
Thiago is the most difficult player to rank because his 2025/26 campaign was outstanding, but repeating 22 Premier League goals represents a major challenge. The Brazilian finished second behind Haaland after scoring 22 league goals in 38 appearances. That was an enormous leap from his first Premier League season, when he made only eight appearances and failed to score.
His breakthrough was not simply about finishing chances. Thiago became a major reference point for Brentford’s attack and demonstrated the physical qualities required to compete against Premier League centre-backs over a full season.
The concern is whether Brentford can reproduce the same attacking conditions. The club has undergone significant changes, while Thiago’s role with Brazil at the World Cup offered limited evidence that he has already become a guaranteed international starter. He began Brazil’s tournament opener against Morocco but did not feature again for Carlo Ancelotti’s side, according to the pre-season Golden Boot assessment published by NetBet. That should not erase what he achieved domestically.
Twenty-two Premier League goals are difficult to dismiss as luck, particularly when they came across an entire season. However, the next step is proving that he can remain around the 20-goal mark after opponents have had a full season to study his movement and Brentford have experienced further changes. If he improves rather than regresses, Thiago could again finish among the top three.
Prediction: 20 Premier League goals
4. Ollie Watkins – Aston Villa
Watkins does not receive quite as much attention as Haaland or Isak, but his consistency makes him one of the safest candidates in the PL Golden Boot 2026/27 discussion. The Aston Villa striker scored 16 Premier League goals last season and has repeatedly produced strong numbers since becoming Unai Emery’s first-choice centre-forward. ESPN’s final 2025/26 scoring list placed Watkins fourth with 16 goals. His strength is not based on one specific type of chance.
Watkins can attack crosses, run behind defensive lines, finish cut-backs and contribute during transitions, while his willingness to stretch the pitch creates space for Villa’s other attackers. That variety gives him a high floor over a long campaign. The problem is the supporting cast around him.
Villa have lost important attacking and creative players during the summer, including Morgan Rogers, which could affect the volume and quality of chances Watkins receives. The striker has therefore become more important to Villa, but greater responsibility does not necessarily translate into more goals if the supply line weakens.
His World Cup involvement also means he enters the season with significant international experience, although England had several attacking options and Watkins did not carry the same central responsibility for his country that Haaland did for Norway. Watkins remains a credible outside challenger because his baseline is already high.
Prediction: 17 Premier League goals
5. João Pedro – Chelsea
João Pedro could be one of the most interesting players in the entire PL Golden Boot 2026/27 race because his ceiling appears considerably higher than his previous league totals suggest. The Brazilian scored 15 Premier League goals for Chelsea in 2025/26, placing him among the division’s leading scorers. The official Premier League statistics confirm that he finished level with Morgan Gibbs-White and behind only Haaland, Thiago and the other leading scorers.
His underlying importance to Chelsea goes beyond the raw total. Pedro is capable of operating as a central striker, dropping into midfield and linking attacks before arriving in the penalty area. That versatility could be especially valuable under Xabi Alonso, whose Chelsea side is expected to use a system that gives Pedro opportunities to combine with players such as Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers. His pre-season form has also generated attention.
Pedro scored a hat-trick during Chelsea’s 6-4 victory over Western Sydney Wanderers and followed that with two goals against AC Milan, giving him considerable momentum before the competitive season begins. NetBet has subsequently identified him as one of the leading alternatives to Haaland in the Golden Boot market. The major issue is whether pre-season form translates into a full Premier League campaign.
Chelsea have several attacking options, so Pedro must establish himself as the primary goalscoring reference point rather than simply being one of several forwards sharing chances. If Alonso builds the attack around his movement and finishing, 20 goals is not an unrealistic target.
Prediction: 19 Premier League goals
6. Viktor Gyökeres – Arsenal
Gyökeres enters the PL Golden Boot 2026/27 conversation after a first Premier League campaign that was productive without quite reaching the level many expected. The Sweden international scored 14 league goals for Arsenal in 2025/26, finishing seventh in the official scoring standings.
At first glance, that figure may look underwhelming for a striker of his reputation, but there is more context behind it. Gyökeres was adapting to a new league and a different attacking environment after becoming accustomed to playing a much more direct role at Sporting. Arsenal’s structure also spreads attacking responsibility across several players, meaning he is not guaranteed the same volume of touches and shots that he enjoyed previously. His biggest advantage heading into the new season is familiarity.
Gyökeres now understands the physical demands of Premier League football, the movement required against deeper defensive blocks and the patterns used by Arsenal’s attacking players. That experience could allow him to turn some of last season’s half-chances into goals. Sweden’s World Cup squad also included both Gyökeres and Isak, with FIFA highlighting the pair as the main attacking figures in Graham Potter’s squad.
For Gyökeres, however, the biggest challenge is competition for attacking influence at Arsenal. Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz and other attacking players can all contribute goals, while Arsenal’s midfielders also have licence to attack the box. That balance helps the team but can make the Golden Boot harder for one player to win. Even so, a jump from 14 to around 18 goals would be entirely reasonable.
Prediction: 18 Premier League goals
7. Benjamin Šeško – Manchester United
Benjamin Šeško is the most speculative selection on this list, but that is exactly why he deserves consideration. The Slovenian scored 11 Premier League goals in 2025/26 and endured periods when his form and Manchester United’s attacking structure both worked against him. His overall numbers were therefore less impressive than those of the leading Golden Boot contenders.
However, the second half of his campaign offered encouragement. Šeško improved under Michael Carrick and scored seven goals in 14 appearances during that period, according to recent analysis of his season. He has also entered the new campaign after a summer of physical development, with reports suggesting that he has added muscle and looks stronger.
That could make a significant difference. Šeško already possesses the physical profile required for Premier League football. He is tall, quick, powerful and comfortable attacking space, while his finishing has improved as he has adapted to the demands of English football. Manchester United’s challenge is creating enough opportunities.
Bruno Fernandes remains a major creative influence, while players such as Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha can also create chances, but United need a more consistent attacking structure if Šeško is going to move from an 11-goal striker towards the 20-goal bracket. He may not be the most likely winner, but he could become one of the biggest movers in the scoring charts.
Prediction: 17 Premier League goals
Who will win the PL Golden Boot 2026/27?
The safest prediction remains Haaland. His 27 goals last season were not an isolated achievement, and his record since arriving in England gives him a level of consistency that none of his rivals can currently match. The World Cup strengthened his case further after he scored seven goals for Norway and helped them reach the quarter-finals.
Isak is the strongest alternative because his previous Premier League record suggests that his disappointing Liverpool debut campaign should not define him. A healthy season, combined with Liverpool’s need for a new primary goalscorer, could put him within touching distance of Haaland.
Thiago is the wildcard. If he reproduces anything close to his 22-goal campaign, Brentford could once again have a genuine Golden Boot contender. The question is whether his extraordinary breakthrough season represents his new level or the peak of an exceptional campaign.
João Pedro may offer the biggest potential improvement among the remaining contenders, particularly if Chelsea’s new tactical approach gives him a consistent central role. Gyökeres also has the potential to improve significantly now that he has a season of Premier League experience behind him. Watkins is the consistency pick, while Šeško represents the young challenger capable of making the biggest leap.
The PL Golden Boot 2026/27 race therefore looks likely to revolve around one central question: can anyone finally stop Haaland?
For now, the evidence still points towards the Norwegian. However, Isak’s return to fitness, Thiago’s attempt to prove his 22-goal campaign was no fluke, Pedro’s development at Chelsea and the potential improvement of Gyökeres and Šeško mean the race should remain competitive deep into the season.
PL Golden Boot 2026/27 prediction
- Erling Haaland – Manchester City: 28 goals
- Alexander Isak – Liverpool: 24 goals
- Igor Thiago – Brentford: 20 goals
- João Pedro – Chelsea: 19 goals
- Viktor Gyökeres – Arsenal: 18 goals
- Ollie Watkins – Aston Villa: 17 goals
- Benjamin Šeško – Manchester United: 17 goals
The Golden Boot is rarely won simply by choosing the most talented striker. Availability, penalties, tactical responsibility, chance creation and team performance all matter over 38 matches. That is why Haaland begins as the clear favourite, but the 2026/27 race contains enough uncertainty to make this one of the more intriguing Golden Boot contests in recent years.
